OTTAWA  30/04/2025 — What was once a clear path to victory has become a political collapse for Canada’s Conservative Party. Not only did the party fail to form government in the recent federal election, but its leader Pierre Poilievre also lost his own seat—a stunning turn fueled by growing voter backlash over the party’s perceived alignment with Indian foreign interests and its silence on India’s transnational repression in Canada.

For months, national polling placed the Conservatives on course for a majority. But the tide turned dramatically, especially in key ridings across Ontario and British Columbia, where Sikh voters—who hold influence in more than 30 federal constituencies—voted overwhelmingly for the Liberal Party. All 30 of those seats were won by Liberals.

Community anger over India’s interference in Canadian democracy reached a boiling point during the campaign. Sikh leaders and civil rights organizations had been sounding the alarm about India's transnational repression, including surveillance, intimidation, and the 2023 assassination of activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar—an act that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly linked to Indian government agents.

In this climate, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre drew intense criticism for refusing to accept a top-secret national security briefing on foreign interference. His dismissal of classified evidence as unnecessary struck many as dismissive of the threat, especially among Sikh Canadians, who viewed it as a betrayal.

“By refusing the briefing, Poilievre told the Sikh community and all Canadians that foreign interference wasn’t a priority,” said Jasmeet Dhillon, a political commentator in Brampton. “That cost him and his party dearly.”

Further damaging the Conservative brand was public concern that Indian government networks supported Poilievre during his leadership bid. The party’s lack of a firm position against Indian influence fed growing suspicions that it was quietly courting pro-India elements within Canada—while ignoring the impact on domestic sovereignty and diaspora safety.

The blowback wasn’t limited to the Conservative camp. During the campaign, multiple candidates across parties with perceived pro-India ties were either dropped or quietly removed from ballots, including a Liberal hopeful vying for a senior leadership seat. Party insiders confirmed that concerns over foreign influence and community backlash prompted the decisions. One senior Liberal strategist said, “Being openly pro-India is now seen as being anti-Canadian.”

In contrast, the Liberals leaned heavily into messaging around national security and the protection of diaspora communities. Their clear condemnation of India’s alleged role in Nijjar’s killing and commitment to addressing foreign interference helped consolidate support among skeptical voters.

The results speak for themselves. The Conservative strategy to avoid taking a firm stand on Indian interference—possibly to maintain ties with pro-India backers—alienated a vital voter bloc. Sikh Canadians, who had previously supported both parties, made a decisive break toward the Liberals. That shift, amplified across dozens of ridings, proved pivotal.

Now, in the wake of electoral defeat, the Conservative Party faces internal reckoning. Analysts say the failure to address transnational repression, combined with the appearance of alignment with Indian interests, may haunt the party for years to come.

“The message from the electorate is clear,” said political analyst Aisha Rahman. “Canadian sovereignty is not up for negotiation. And any political party seen as compromising that—whether by silence or by design—will pay the price at the polls.”